The price action on the EUR / USD is showing range behavior from the second week of January 2018, the objective of this article is to share our point of view about the current situation and future projection of the EURO. Our forte is technical analysis with emphasis on Elliott Wave.
The Elliott Wave analysis is a brilliant technique to study the price cycles, and it is based on the past to predict the future, in my case I have spent more than eight years dedicated 100% to this way of analyzing the behavior of the price. I commit on average four hours a day updating the wave counts in several instruments, and it is such an exciting activity that every day I feel as if it were the first time.
Elliott Wave in EUR / USD
The price action this week has behaved bullish in general terms, the price reached resistance 1.2413 and began to lose ground down to 1.2348. From the low 1.2145 (March 1) to the high 1.2446 (March 8) the bullish cycle called wave “1” (red), this wave presents a particularity. Its internal structure corresponds to a zigzag “ABC” (orange), this situation can only happen when the price plans to perform a diagonal wave.
Elliott Wave EUR / USD 4 – Hour Chart
As in this case, we look for the end of the bullish cycle at 1.2643, and we are within a fifth wave. The Elliott Wave theory allows us to use the final diagonal wave, one of its characteristics is that in most cases it draws cycles of three, ” ABC” for each of the waves.
The wave “1” (red) ended giving way to wave “2” (red), since March 8 we have been following the trail and estimating the form it can take, the scenario with the highest probability is the one we show in this technical report. The internal waves that makeup “2” (red), correspond to a zigzag “ABC” (orange), the wave “B” ended at 1.2412, and the wave “C” is expected to visit the 1.2200 area.
The channel for wave “B” (orange) is not ideal, but it is possible to work based on the continuation principle of the bearish flag, if you enter short we recommend studying the price reaction at the trendline of the channel (highlighted in orange). If the price breaks this support keep the short until the 1.2200 zone. If the price shows rebellion, inability to overcome the support, high volatility close your position and wait.