Weekly Forex Play April 1, 2012


EUR/USD Current Price: 1.3339 USD/JPY: 82.83
Daily High/Lows:

Fri Mar 30 1.3377/1.3294
Thu Mar 29 1.3346/1.3252
Wed Mar 28 1.3374/1.3277
Tue Mar 27 1.3386/1.3313

Pivots: S3: 1.3210; S2: 1.3253; S1: 1.3296; P: 1.3336; R1: 1.3379; R2: 1.3418; R3: 1.3458

EUR/USD: The European currencies closed the week firm with the commodity currencies weakening. The AUD/USD weakened steadily this entire month from a high of 1.0855 to current levels at 1.0450. This boded well for the EUR/AUD cross which traded to a high of 1.2900 this week from the start of the move at 1.2135 on February 7th. The EUR/CAD followed suit. This cross action has buoyed the EUR/USD to trade sideways this week but well supported. While the EUR/USD could trade a bit higher this week, a move above 1.3486 would invalidate a short position, as that would mean that price has violated the start of wave i. Once the c wave completes the current wave ii, the EUR/USD should head down again. The USD/JPY, on the other hand, spent the week correcting the previous swing move up, reaching a corrective 3-wave move down to 81.83 off the highs of 84.18 made on March 15th. The USD/JPY looks set to continue the uptrend for a wave 5 which will likely take out the previous high at 84.18. Once we complete the wave 5, we will likely see a nice corrective move for the USD/JPY since the start of this leg up at 76.00 on February 1st 2012. The theme for this week is to buy USD/JPY on dips and sell the EUR/USD once you see the EUR commodity crosses softening.

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