Markets Still Not Sure After the Positive Retail Print

This past week it was good news is bad news for the buck and stocks as the retail sales print beat expectations with upwardly revisions. Rates, instead of shooting to the moon after the rate-hike favoring retail’s print, rolled over moving down off the 2.49 high it put in Thursday to test the 2.33 high giveing the bond market a breather. Gold, rallying nicely after the print, gave it all back and some closing Friday below the 1200 at 1181, but up on the week .84%. After quickly spiking up to the 61.53, Crude Nymex Mini rolled over and closed Friday down at the 59.90 back in the middle of a nast contraction zone down from the 62.56 high. It looks like the print did not do much to change the markets confusion because nothing really happened or changed much. It really does look like the Fed is going to have to speak to get things going. Even though stocks rolled over after the print, on the week, US equities were split with the Dow and the SPX both closing slightly up on the week while utilities and transportation fell red. The moves on the Dow, SPX and Transportation all look very corrective. However, Utilities looks the most bearish off the 4 because of its more impulsive like series down from the all-time high. Regardless, markets are at a crossroads and contracting but nearing a breaking point. Stock indexes are rounding for sure. And if this is a Cycle degree set back and not the “big one,” the SPX should drop to 1967 or the 1819 low before staging a new rally to new highs. These will be the levels to watch. This week the focus will be on Wednesday’s Fed Monetary Policy Statement and Fed Interest Rate Decision. No one is expecting a rate hike so we just might get one—be careful; or at least get some hawkish signals out of Yellen. Even some dissent will put some wind behind the Buck. However, it does look like inflation is picking up a bit. Inflation numbers come out the following day of the FED rate decision. This number will be great to watch closely. If inflation picks up, the Fed will really be in a spot for I still believe that the market is way too weak to handle higher rates at present and the FED knows it. They are watching inflation very closely and it has been ticking up recently. If this continues, the Fed will have no choice but to raise them. This week could be key for markets are splintered across the board and at turning points.

DX.X-Primary-Analysis-Jun-13-1113-AM-1-day

The dollar index lost 1.42% this week however appears to have stabilized above Wednesday’s Blue B 94.32 low. Although, closing down Friday, the move does not take out the upward bias the buck is still threatening. The index is expected to move up to the 99 level for a counter corrective Green B. The USD needs to get over the 95.67 high for confirmation it is heading for the 99. From the smaller charts the index looks like it wants to head down to the 93.81 100% Magenta C vs. A. Anything past this mark and the Buck should head down to test the 93 handle next. Past his and the index could slide down as far as the 91. However, given the strength of the overall move so far and the price action since the 1000 Orange wave 3 high, the buck is most likely going to cut out a triangle like pattern around the 96. Keep in mind that these areas are notorious and very dangerous to trade.

TNX.XO-Primary-Analysis-Jun-13-1113-AM-1-day

The US 10 year yield was red on the week about .58% however, after hitting the 3.97 level, which it hasn’t seen since September of last year. Regardless, the trend is still up for this resent pull back off the 3.97 should be a Magenta 2 of a 3rd of a 3d the benchmark is very likely in. I am looking for the 2.33 to hold price. It looks like rates do not want to wait for the Fed to tighten. The move to the 30 should be swift and clean. Magenta and Blue wave 4 overlap should take place around the 2.7 to the 2.8%.

@QM-Primary-Analysis-Jun-14-0526-AM-4-hour

Although US Crude Nymex Mini staged a 1.9% rise this trading week, it is too is mired in the middle of the contraction zone it has been trading sideways in since the May 6th 62.55 high. After reaching the 61.82, the commodity has rolled over once again and is heading down to the 59.25 in what should be a Red A if this consolidation is to be a triangle. This this supposed triangle makes it to its apex, wave E is expected to complete near the 58 handle for a Magenta wave 4. Five up to about the 64.48 will then be expected to end this larger degree Green 4 (see weekly).

XAUUSD-Primary-Analysis-Jun-14-0546-AM-1-day

Gold is stuck between the 1200 and the 1180 in what I believe is a triangle just about formed at Cycle degree because it looks like the metal is reaching its apex soon. Price looks like it wants to break above the 1192 high testing the 1200 and possibly the 1207 before the metal rolls over and heads down to the 1140 (see weekly).

SPX500-Primary-Analysis-Jun-14-0733-AM-1-day

Tohe top the SPX put on May 18th is still holding and it looks like the index is cutting out a leading diagonal series down to the 2040 for a Blue 1 of five waves which could reach the 1840 low—a devastating blow (see weekly). This supposed Magenta wave 2 the index is likely in now should reach the 2120 before we get another move down for a test of the 2062, which should prove support Magenta 3. The 2120 is the line in the sand. This is the February 25th Green wave 1 high which the index has been playing off of for some time now has been proving formidable resistance. If the index moves above it and we get a close on the Daily, the chances are good the futures is heading to a new all-time high. If it does, it shouldn’t get much further than the 2146, which is the 113% extension of the now magenta 1. As with many other major indexes, the SPX is compressed in a nasty contraction zone and acting very volatile, making wild daily moves and then reversing them completely and impulsively. It is rare to see a retracement move that is reversed 100% not a three when it is not a C of a flat. However, lately this has been happening quite frequently and it is prominent in the SPX and other major US indexes. Tensions are mounting on both sides. Both the bears and the bulls are on equal footing and emotions are on high alert, hence the erratic wild swings we have been getting of late. I really do see this market tipping. Stock indexes all over the world are way past turning points at Cycle degree and higher. Macro fundamentals have been horrid through out this entire run up from the 2009 low signifying a counter corrective move up rather than an actionary one.

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